On February 16^th , the Russian Federal Penitentiary Service announced that political prisoner and opposition figure Alexey Navalny had died at a prison in Yamalo-Nemets Autonomous Okrug in northern Russia. Starting in February 2021, Navalny had been imprisoned on a series of dubious financial charges and, more recently, on charges of political extremism. No definitive cause of death has yet been confirmed, and Navalny’s body was returned to his mother on February 24^th .

Navalny served his sentences in several labor colonies and prisons, where he was allegedly subjected to sleep deprivation, physical abuse, and other forms of torture. In December 2023, he was moved to a penal colony north of the Arctic circle, the site of his eventual death.

Navalny was known for his role as a political opponent of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Among other attempted political campaigns, Navalny tried to run for the mayorship of Moscow and the Russian presidency. In 2011, he started the Anti-Corruption Foundation, a non-profit organization that sought to expose political and financial corruption and was ultimately liquidated by the Russian government as an extremist organization.

So, what does this mean?

Navalny’s death will not change Western perceptions of the Putin regime, nor does it uniquely demonstrate the regime’s capacity for brutality. It does, however, represent Putin’s special disdain for Western preferences and any belief that the war in Ukraine could be ended by negotiations on anything but his terms.

By attempting to assassinate Navalny in late 2020, Putin acknowledged that the reputational cost of ordering an assassination was far less than the benefits of being rid of Russia’s lone, prominent opposition figure. Navalny’s return to Russia in January 2021 kick-started a brief series of anti-government protests that led to a violent crackdown and the final destruction of organized public demonstration. Following this, the last independent journalists of any significance were detained or driven out of Russia as Putin prepared the country for war. Navalny’s death is but the latest act of Russian state violence against domestic dissidents.

General Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s top military commander, announced on February 17^th that he had ordered a withdrawal from Avdiivka, a small city in the southeastern part of the country that had been the scene of intense fighting in the war against Russia. Prior to the formal evacuation order, Russian forces had nearly surrounded Avdiivka, which had for weeks been a collapsing pocket in Ukraine’s defensive line. 

The capture of Avdiivka marks the Russian military’s biggest victory since taking Bakhmut in May 2023, and highlights Ukraine’s inability to make significant gains during its long-anticipated 2023 offensive. It also marks a serious defeat for Ukrainian forces, already dealing with dwindling international aid and turnover among its military command. In an additional blow, some reports suggest that the Russian military captured hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers during the last-minute evacuation of the city. Ukrainian and American officials maintain that the loss of Avdiivka is not a major strategic setback, but at the very least it will dampen hopes that Ukraine can alter the trajectory of the war in 2024. 

So, what does this mean?

The fall of Avdiivka places even more focus on the US Congress’s failure to pass another military aid package for Ukraine. While the pending USD $60 billion in aid may not have saved Avdiivka, it could have allowed the city to hold out longer and may have prevented the Russian military from immediately pushing on toward further gains elsewhere. The Russian government, meanwhile, will surely make the victory the centerpiece of the March 2024 presidential election that will be used to reaffirm Putin’s rule and further solidify public support for the war effort.

Defense Minister with ties to Suharto Regime Wins Indonesian Presidential Election

Prabowo Subianto won the February 14^th Indonesian presidential election resoundingly. By most accounts the incumbent defense minister was favored to win, but the margin of victory was perhaps greater than expected. Prabowo is a long-time rival of outgoing President Joko Widodo, losing to Widodo in the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections, though Widodo defused their feud by appointing Prabowo to the defense ministry.

Prabowo’s controversial past as a lieutenant general in the Indonesian special forces under former dictator Suharto did not negatively affect his electoral campaign. The president-elect has been linked to killings in East Timor during the Indonesian occupation, and in West Papua, and of facilitating the abduction of pro-democracy political activists at the end of the Suharto regime.

Politically and economically, Prabowo has positioned himself as a direct heir to the policies of incumbent Joko Widodo, supporting Indonesia’s geopolitical neutrality and championing economic development. However, Prabowo has been vocal about his own interests. He has, for example, said that he plans to ban the export of raw nickel, preferring that the mineral, essential to electric vehicle batteries, be processed domestically. This could lead to further growth in the country’s booming coal industry, which has benefited from the coal-burning plants built to process nickel. 

 So, what does this mean?

The result carries more than a hint of political dynasticism. Prabowo’s running mate is the 36-year-old Gibran Rakabuming Raka, mayor of Surakarta and son of President Widodo, who was too young to join the presidential ticket until he was granted an exception by the Indonesian Constitutional Court. Widodo also chose to support Prabowo over the candidate nominated by his own party, the PDI-P, indirectly acknowledging that a Prabowo victory could position his son to eventually take over the presidency. 

Prabowo also has close ties to Indonesia’s former dictator Suharto, who ruled the country for more than 30 years before being forced out in 1998. Upon taking power, Suharto carried out a violent purge of alleged communists that led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Indonesians. Besides serving in the military during the Suharto regime, Prabowo’s political career was jump-started by his marriage to Suharto’s daughter.