Unsurprisingly, early results indicate that President Vladimir Putin won Russia’s March 15-17, 2024, presidential election with nearly 90 percent of all votes. The other nominees were hand-picked by the Kremlin for their pseudo-opposition, or they would never have been allowed on the ballot in the first place. Russian police and special forces have spent the past few years killing, arresting, or driving into exile anyone with an audience who was publicly opposed to Putin. The best known and last standing anti-Putin activist still in Russia, Alexey Navalny, died in an Arctic prison in February.

Again, this result should not come as a shock. Even if Russia’s war effort in Ukraine was collapsing, rather than experiencing a revival, Putin would have won easily. Nevertheless, his ability to re-consolidate authority following the unexpectedly difficult first year-and-a-half of the war and the aborted Prigozhin coup demonstrates a power and resilience that has left many Western political observers surprised.

Russia has also used the occasion of the election to expand its symbolic authority in the occupied Ukrainian territories. Voting opened early in the occupied cities of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, where Russian authorities likely hope that the process of voting will be a small step toward legitimizing their rule.

So, what does this mean?

This means that, if Putin sees out the whole of his next term, he will have ruled for longer than Stalin. It should be remembered that this election springs from the 2020 constitutional referendum. Originally planned to take place in April 2020, it was pushed back because of the COVID-19 pandemic. When the referendum eventually passed in June, it reset the presidential term limit, allowing Putin to run in 2024 and again in 2030.

Putin surely did not need to rewrite the constitution to continue as president, but the election served to put off anxieties about his succession. Formally, the Russian constitution dictates that the prime minister (currently Mikhail Mishustin) will take over if Putin dies or is forced from office, with a presidential election to determine the subsequent leader. In reality, the succession will depend on Putin’s wishes and whatever process guides the elite competition that will surely follow his death. By giving himself the constitutional permission to rule until he is 83, Putin is simply kicking the succession can down the road.

Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry agreed, on March 11, 2024, to step down pending the creation of a transitional council to appoint his successor. Henry was appointed in 2021, just days before the assassination of former President Jovenel Moïse, but has never been confirmed by the Haitian legislature. His decision to resign was motivated, in part, by the gang-driven chaos that has gripped the Caribbean country.

While Henry was out of the country on a trip intended to rally international support for his government, Haitian gangs in the capital, Port-au-Prince, coordinated attacks on government buildings, prisons, and the international airport, which has been indefinitely closed since the assault. Henry himself was unable to return to Haiti, and made the announcement of his resignation from Puerto Rico.

So, what does this mean?

Haiti runs the risk of descending into “state failure” if the situation does not rapidly and unexpectedly improve. Gang violence grips the country, especially in the capital, and basic government services have been suspended. Thousands of Haitians have been internally displaced. Meanwhile, one plan to ease the security burden on the now non-existent police forces has also collapsed. Kenya suspended its planned deployment of one thousand police officers to Haiti until a new government takes office.

It remains unclear the extent to which the US will get involved in attempting to stabilize Haiti. Biden declined to lead a multinational force after Moïse’s assassination, but the instability has since worsened. Secretary of State Blinken has traveled to the region to discuss more funding for Haiti, but it does not appear that other plans have been formalized. State collapse this close to US borders will be hard to ignore for much longer.